WAG - The rundown...
Okay. It's Election Day, finally!
Here's my game day predictions. I’ve bolded five key states to watch.
Alabama - Bush
Alaska - Bush
Arizona - Bush
Arkansas - Bush, Clinton's last minute campagin stops won't do much
California - Kerry, but Arnold will make it closer than in 2000.
Colorado - Bush
Connecticut - Kerry
Delaware - Kerry
Florida – Bush, though lawyers may contest this one
Georgia - Bush
Hawaii – Kerry, only slightly
Idaho - Bush
Illinois – Kerry, thanks to the Chicago political machine
Indiana - Bush
Iowa – Bush, barely. This is a change from 2000.
Kansas - Bush
Kentucky - Bush
Louisiana - Bush
Maine - Kerry
Maryland - Kerry
Massachusetts – Kerry, it’s his home state, duh.
Michigan – Kerry, though by less than he’d like
Minnesota – Kerry, same as above
Mississippi - Bush
Missouri – Bush, expect the Presidential victor to have a governor to match.
Montana - Bush
Nebraska - Bush
Nevada – Bush – though what happens in Vegas, doesn’t stay in Vegas
New Hampshire – Kerry, a slight turnover from 2000
New Jersey – Kerry
New Mexico Bush, a key turnover from 2000
New York – Kerry, never mind that convention
North Carolina – Bush, Edwards never had a chance
North Dakota - Bush
Ohio – Bush, though this will be another gathering place for litigation
Oklahoma - Bush. And Poor Jud will be daid (couldn't help myself).
Oregon – Kerry, but very slightly.
Pennsylvania – Kerry, but only due to recent suppressing of absentee military votes
Rhode Island - Kerry
South Carolina - Bush
South Dakota – Bush, and probably not Daschle
Tennessee – Bush, Gore loses again.
Texas, heh, heh, heh, - Bush
Utah - Bush
Vermont - Kerry, though Dean will do well in the write-in category.
Virginia - Kerry
Washington – Kerry
Washington, D.C. – Kerry, who else? Definately not Nader.
West Virginia - Bush
Wisconsin – Bush, in a tight race
and finally
Wyoming – Bush
I expect Bush to win 4 out of the 5 to-watch states. Truth be told, Missouri has been solidly Bush for some time, but if things get tight, St. Louis is another place where lawyers may crop up.
This is playing very conservatively… no pun intended. I am tempted to give Bush Oregon, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and even Hawaii as well, but I have not seen any pattern in the polls that would prompt me to confidently swtich them from the blue side to the red.
I have the final Electoral College vote down as 286 to 252 – besting Bush’s 278 finish in 2000. I do not expect to have picked every state correctly, but I’m still leaning toward a Bush victory in this election. I'm also stating my belief this election won't make it to the Supreme Court; though some lower courts will get mixed up in some minor skirmishes.
We’ll just see what 24 hours says.
'Vote_today___2004'
Note from 2005: If you double check the stats, you'll find I mis-called Wisconsin, though the electoral college count was spot on. Good for me.
